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In 2024, majorShonen Jumpmanga ended.Jujutsu KaisenandMy Hero Academiabid farewell to their fans (at least when it comes to the original stories, there are plenty of spin-offs ongoing). SinceNarutoandBleachended in the 2010s, fans have been wondering which titles would be the “next big three”.
The “big three” are the three best-sellingShonen Jumpseries that could become long-lasting hits, which in the 2000s wereOne Piece,NarutoandBleach. It’s important to notice, however, that even whenNarutoandBleachwere at their peaks,One Pieceused to top ranks, selling two times more than the second place (which used to beNaruto, generally).
The “New” Big Three In The 2010s
WhenNarutoandBleachfinished serialization, we saw people pointing toseveral possible new candidates.My Hero Academiawas one of the candidates, butBlack Clover, The Promised NeverlandandHaikyuuwere also strong candidates during the 2010s. In the 2020s, especially afterPromised NeverlandandHaikyuuended,Demon SlayerandJujutsu Kaisenbecame strong candidates.
Of all those candidates, onlyBlack Cloveris still ongoing, but it has moved toJump Giga.One Pieceoutlived all possible “next big three” candidates. It’s a bit weird that many titles were presented aspart of the “new” big threewhen the oldest of the “original” big three was not only still in serialization but also topped manga sales almost every year during the 2010s. It was only in 2019 that another series (Demon Slayer)topped at least Oricon’s charts.
But now it’s clearOne Pieceshould end in the next few years. Many people are then wondering: which will be the next big three? Which currentSJtitles could last as long as at leastNarutoandBleach, spending around 10 years in serialization?
But that question is based on a wrong impression, because the “big three” from the 2000s were outliers inShonen Jumphistory, not the rule (which doesn’t mean the magazine wouldn’t want to try to replicate it). So the question here is: doesShonen Jumpactuallyneedanother big three? To answer that, we will need to first reflect on a few things.
Shonen Jump Before “the Big Three”
Before briefly analyzing whatShonen Jumpwas before the so-called “Big Three Era”, it’s important to note that there was never a “big three” in the way international audiences understand it. WhileOne PieceandNarutofrequently topped theyearly Oricon chartsas the top 1 and top 2 manga when it comes to sales numbers (withOne Pieceusually selling at least twice as much asNaruto),Bleachwas not always in third place, and would sometimes sell less than other Jump titles, likeRebornorBlue Exorcist.
Ifwe think of the “Big Three” from the perspective of how long the series ran in the magazine, becoming a pillar of it, then we actually had a Big Four.Gintama, which debuted in 2003, also ran for over 15 years inSJ. In its final arc, it was moved toJump Giga(in 2018), and ended serialization in 2019, with 77 volumes.Gintamaalso used to be at least among the top 10 titles in the Oricon charts. But despite being a huge hit,Gintamais usually ignored by international audiences, since its humor relies so much on Japanese references.
This points out that the idea of a “Big Three” is actually a misinterpretation made by international audiences, who would only consider the three long-lastingJumptitles that were able to consistently reach an international public. Also,Hunter x Hunter(1998–) was almost reaching ten years of serialization when it started going on recurring hiatus (the first long hiatus started in 2006).The Prince of Tennisalso lasted long, running from 1999 to 2008, finishing with 42 volumes (but not as long as the supposed “big four”).
If we analyzeShonen Jumpduring what is considered its prime, the 1980s-1990s, we will notice that titles would hardly be serialized for over 6 years. The exceptions areJoJo’s Bizarre Adventure(ongoing since 1987, but moved toUltra Jumpin 2004, when 80 volumes had been compiled),Rokudenashi Blues(1988-1997; 42 volumes) andDragon Ball(1984-1995, 42 volumes), andCaptain Tsubasaif we consider the sequels to the first series (that ran from 1981 to 1988). EvenSlam Dunk, considered one of the pillars of the magazine in the 1990s, didn’t last for over 6 years, running from 1990 to 1996, with 31 volumes.
Rather than serializing a huge, long-lasting hit, important authors would create several shorter stories. Mangaka like Masami Kurumada (Saint Seiya), Buronson (Hokuto no Ken), Tetsuo Hara (Hokuto no Ken), Masazaku Katsura (Wing-Man), Akira Toriyama (Dragon Ball), Yoshihiro Togashi (Yu Yu Hakusho) and Tsukasa Hojo (City Hunter)all created more than one hit to the magazine during their careers (Kurumada was for a time one of the biggest names of the magazine, bothRing ni KakeroandFuuma no Kojirowere considered big hits before he created his most internationally known work,Saint Seiya). If we go back to the 1970s, series would generally be much shorter than 6 years.
What this all shows is that the 2000s were an exception when it comes to how long series last in the magazines. Success had not been measured by serializations that would last over 10 years.Shonen Jumpeditors in the 1990s were probably not even expecting series that would be so long, much less that more than one series would be able to stay running for over 10 years.
Shonen Jump Peaked Before the Big Three
The “Big Three” actually emerged after what is considered the Golden Age ofShonen Jump. The magazine peaked during the 1980s-1990s, and1994 was the year whenShonen Jumphad the highest circulationof all time: the average circulation of the magazine was calculatedat around 6.3 million copies. That’s almost six times higher than theaverage circulation of the magazine in 2020(at around 1.6 million), whenDemon Slayerwas peaking.
I have a very personal take on this. Considering this “outlier” happened right after the magazine started to decline, I believe the editorial team might have pressured authors more than usual to not finish their stories, becauseJumpwas afraid that losing its most famous titles would lead to a greater decline. This is just a hypothesis, though. If that ever happened, I also believe they started realizing that it is hard to get titles to last so long, so they changed strategies.
However, today is harder to know if we can say Jump is still declining because many readers are using online platforms likeShonen Jump+andManga Plus. We don’t have accurate information about how many people access these websites and what exactly people are reading. We know some stories are huge hits, but we don’t know what’s the average for a manga.
Sales Suggest Diversification Has Been The Answer
In 2021 and 2022, in which the world was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, we had numbers that were bigger than usual, but since 2023 the Oricon charts show numbers more aligned with those we saw during the pre-pandemic. It seems the public is getting more diverse, and we can also check thatShonen Jumphas been successful in serializing new titles that are not the typical battle shounen we’ve been seeing for some decades (agood example would beAkane-banashi). Shonen Jump+ also seems like a place for Shueisha to try new things and check what kind of stuff resonates with the “Jumppublic” (Spy x Family, for example, is also not like a typicalJumpseries, but has become a hit).
We know that the female public has always been there too, but it seemsShonen Jumpis starting to take it more seriously, likeYoung Jumpalready did a few years ago. What we can expect from now is not two or three huge hits that everyone reads, but lots of “smaller hits” that many different people are reading.
Oda hasn’t endedOne Pieceyet, but Masashi Kishimoto and Tite Kubo have not been able to create new hits likeNarutoandBleachafter finishing them.Replicating a success that lasts so long is not an easy task, and what I personally think thatShonen Jumpis looking for with initiatives like theJUMP Next Generation Battle Manga Awardis not authors that can serialize a story for +10 years, but ratherauthors that can once again create several hits that would last around 4–6 years each. If they could create titles that would hit for over 10 years, that would be a bonus, not the goal. I don’t believe any of the new hits,such asSakamoto Days, will run for 10 years.
The so-called “big three” were outliers in the magazine’s history, and diversification seems to be more key than long-lasting hits today.
Shonen Jumpdoesn’t need another big three, it needs diversification and adaptation to an ever-changing manga market, and theSJwe will see in the future is very different from the one we’ve come to know. Which, as already stated, doesn’t mean Shueisha wouldn’t welcome a “new big three” anyway.
